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Prediction for CME (2024-05-29T14:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-29T14:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31200/-1
CME Note: There is no clear arrival signature observed for this CME at L1. Large, bright partial halo CME to east in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is the X1.4 class flare from AR13697 with associated moving/opening field lines visible in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and GOES SUVI 284. Additionally, a thin filament ejecta was visible during the eruption as seen in GOES SUVI 304. Post-eruptive arcades followed the flare as seen in SDO/AIA 193 and 171.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-01T07:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-29T14:15Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 647
Longitude (deg): 3S
Latitude (deg): 51E
Half-angular width (deg): 50

Notes: Initial analysis only at present, still awaiting updated, back-filled coronagraph imagery.
Space weather advisor: Duty officer

Lead Time: 53.17 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-05-30T01:50Z

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